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The Relevance of Trend Variables for the Prediction of Corporate Crises and Insolvencies

Author

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  • Mario Situm

    (University of Applied Sciences, Kufstein, Austria)

Abstract

This study investigated the potential of a specific trend, defined as the relative change of accounting ratios for two consecutive years, to improve the classification accuracy and model performance of insolvency prediction models based on multivariate linear discriminant analysis. The results show that the respective trend can include information from both consecutive years, but this informational content could not be exploited to improve early detection of corporate crises and insolvencies. JEL Classification: C53; G17; G33

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Situm, 2015. "The Relevance of Trend Variables for the Prediction of Corporate Crises and Insolvencies," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 17-49, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:18:y:2015:i:1:p:17-49
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Yeaw Chong Seow, 2023. "Comparative Financial Performance and Firm Valuation Analysis: A Malaysian Logistics Service Provider Case Study," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(7), pages 594-613, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    insolvency prediction; discriminant analysis; accounting ratios; trend variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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