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Macroeconomic Covariates of Default Risk: Case of Pakistani Non-Financial Firms

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  • Ali Raza Elahi Bilal Mehmood Muhammad Mubashir Hussain Awan

    (Credit Analyst at MCB Bank Limited, Lahore, Pakistan Department of Economics, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan Department of Economics, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan)

Abstract

Empirical estimation of default probability through structural approach in the context of macroeconomic dynamics turn out be an emerging idea. However, various aspects of these studies are still needs to be explored to make these models more reliable. This study explored the structural model of default risk (Moody’s KMV) application with macroeconomic dynamics in Pakistani non-financial firm’s context and confirm whether Moody’s KMV model of default prediction could be applicable in Pakistan where the markets are highly speculative and stock markets are highly volatile. The study approximate about the expected default frequency (hereafter EDF) of 307 Pakistani non-financial firms, categorized in 12 industries for a span of 8 years from 2004 to 2011. It further check the macroeconomic variables effects on EDF with the use of generalized method of moments (hereafter GMM). Empirical results compared with the real life scenarios over the said years and on the basis of results we infer that Moody’s KMV model can predict default probability in a much better way than traditional ratio based approach. JEL Classification: C23, C58, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Raza Elahi Bilal Mehmood Muhammad Mubashir Hussain Awan, 2014. "Macroeconomic Covariates of Default Risk: Case of Pakistani Non-Financial Firms," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 17(1), pages 15-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:17:y:2014:i:1:p:15-26
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Mehmood & Parvez Azim & Syed Hassan Raza & Huma Sohaib, 2014. "Labor Productivity, Demographic Traits and ICT A Demo-Tech Productivity Model for Asian Region," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 773-783.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-08 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected Default Frequency; KMV Model; GMM; Industry Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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