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The impact of a surprise dividend increase on a stock’s performance – the analysis of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

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  • Tomasz Słoński
  • Bartosz Zawadzki

Abstract

The reaction of marginal investors to the announcement of a surprise dividend increase has been measured. Although field research is performed on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the paper has important theoretical implications. Valuation theory gives many clues for the interpretation of changes in dividends. At the start of the literature review, the assumption of the irrelevance of dividends (to investment decisions) is described. This assumption is the basis for up-to-date valuation procedures leading to fundamental and fair market valuation of equity (shares). The paper is designed to verify whether the market value of stock is immune to the surprise announcement of a dividend increase. This study of the effect of a surprise dividend increase gives the chance to partially isolate such an event from dividend changes based on long-term expectations. The result of the research explicitly shows that a surprise dividend increase is on average welcomed by investors (an average abnormal return of 2.24% with an associated p-value of 0.001). Abnormal returns are realized by investors when there is a surprise increase in a dividend payout. The subsample of relatively high increases in a dividend payout enables investors to gain a 3.2% return on average. The results show that valuation models should be revised to take into account a possible impact of dividend changes on investors’ behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Słoński & Bartosz Zawadzki, 2012. "The impact of a surprise dividend increase on a stock’s performance – the analysis of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(2), pages 45-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:2:y:2012:p:45-54:id:1028
    DOI: 10.5277/ord120204
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doron Nissim & Amir Ziv, 2001. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2111-2133, December.
    2. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    3. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    4. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. "Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr, 1983. "The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on Shareholders' Wealth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
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