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Application of the VARMA Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory

Author

Listed:
  • Ramin Bashir KHODAPARASTI

    (Urmia University, Iran)

  • Samad MOSLEHI

    (Payam Noor University, Iran)

Abstract

To forecast sales as reliably as possible is one of the most important issues in every business trade. Therefore, in recent years different models have been suggested to deal with this issue. One efficient model is the time series model. This study applies a multivariate time series model to forecast Urmia Gray Cement Factory's sales volume and more importantly, to propose an effective model to be used by other cement factories to predict their sales volume. The two independent variables of costs and revenues and the dependent variable of sales were used in the present study. Results of the study indicated the two independent variables had a positive and direct relationship with sales volume forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramin Bashir KHODAPARASTI & Samad MOSLEHI, 2014. "Application of the VARMA Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 7(1), pages 89-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:wun:timjeb:tjeb:v07:y2014:i01:a05
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Chen, Jean J., 2004. "Determinants of capital structure of Chinese-listed companies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1341-1351, December.
    4. Frees, Edward W. & Miller, Thomas W., 2004. "Sales forecasting using longitudinal data models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 99-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting Models; Autoregressive Process.;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management

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