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An Analysis Of The Initial Presale Rate In Housing Projects Using A Regime-Switching Model

Author

Listed:
  • MYEONG HYEON KIM

    (Seoul National University of Science & Technology, Korea)

  • DOO WON BANG

    (Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation, Korea)

  • HYUCK SHIN KWON

    (Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation, Korea)

Abstract

We analyzed to identify the determinants affecting the presale rate in the housing projects and verified whether there are differences in the determinants of that by regimes. We found that the effects of determinants, such as the ratio of the new apartments’ sales price to existing apartments’ prices, educational environment, the number of unsold houses, and the interest rate of a mortgage on the initial presale rate, could have been different depending on which regime the housing market belongs to. This suggests that the government in Korea and Asian countries should consider the differentiation in effects of the determinants depending on the regime when the government tries to make housing policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Myeong Hyeon Kim & Doo Won Bang & Hyuck Shin Kwon, 2023. "An Analysis Of The Initial Presale Rate In Housing Projects Using A Regime-Switching Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(06), pages 2105-2126, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:68:y:2023:i:06:n:s0217590823500078
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590823500078
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime change; Hamilton model; Markov process; the determinants of the initial presale rate; presale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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