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Data Subject To Multiple Treatment Effects €” Disentangle The Impacts Of Global Pandemic And A Specific Disease Control Policy

Author

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  • XIAO KE

    (Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System, Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan, P. R. China†School of Low Carbon Economics, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan, P. R. China)

  • CHENG HSIAO

    (��Department of Economics, University of Southern California, CA, United States§Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, P. R. China)

Abstract

Most literature works on estimating treatment effects assume that the observed data are either under the specific “treatment†or not. However, in many cases, the observed data could be subject to multiple treatments. We propose to combine econometric methods developed for different purposes to disentangle the multiple treatment effects. We illustrate this strategy by considering the impact of global pandemic v.s. the strictest “lockdown†policy of Hubei, China implemented in January, 2020. We show that although the strictest “lockdown†policy quickly contained the spread of COVID-19, it also inflicted huge economic loss on Hubei economy. It lowered Hubei GDP by about 37% compared to the level had there been no “lockdown†under the pandemic. However, even though Hubei economy managed to recover from the “lockdown†, it could not escape the global impact of pandemic. Its economy is still about 90% of the level had there been no pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Ke & Cheng Hsiao, 2023. "Data Subject To Multiple Treatment Effects €” Disentangle The Impacts Of Global Pandemic And A Specific Disease Control Policy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(05), pages 1507-1527, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:68:y:2023:i:05:n:s0217590822500758
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590822500758
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; COVID-19; counterfactual; epidemic; panel data; predictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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