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The Impact Of World Energy Price Volatility On Aggregate Economic Activity In Developing Asian Economies

Author

Listed:
  • MEHMET HUSEYIN BILGIN

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University, Unalan Mah. Unalan Sok. D-100 Karayolu Yanyol, Uskudar 34700, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • GIRAY GOZGOR

    (Dogus University, Zeamet Sk. No: 21, Acibadem, Kadikoy 34722, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • GOKHAN KARABULUT

    (Istanbul University, Sulemaniye Mah., No: 1, Beyazit, Fatih 34452, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of volatility in the world energy price on aggregate economic activity in an unbalanced panel data framework for 10 developing Asian countries: Bangladesh, PR China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. We use both the realized volatility and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models to measure the volatility in the world energy price. Empirical findings from dynamic panel data estimations show that the volatility in world energy price is negatively associated with the aggregate economic activity. Using the common correlated effects panel estimation techniques, we also systematically examine uncertain transmission channel of the world energy price volatility on the aggregate economic activity in each economy and obtain the most impressive negative effects in Turkey, PR China and India, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Giray Gozgor & Gokhan Karabulut, 2015. "The Impact Of World Energy Price Volatility On Aggregate Economic Activity In Developing Asian Economies," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(01), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:60:y:2015:i:01:n:s0217590815500095
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590815500095
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, April.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Gang & Sharma, Paritosh & Jain, Vipin & Shukla, Avanish & Shahzad Shabbir, Malik & Tabash, Mosab I. & Chawla, Chanchal, 2022. "The relationship among oil prices volatility, inflation rate, and sustainable economic growth: Evidence from top oil importer and exporter countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Saraireh & Alessandra Canepa, 2021. "Energy Market Risk Management under Uncertainty: A VaR Based on Wavelet Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 130-137.
    5. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Chen, Fu-Rui & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2021. "Network connectedness between natural gas markets, uncertainty and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2018. "A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 2136-2153.
    7. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2023. "Insights of energy and its trade networking impacts on sustainable economic development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Giray Gozgor & Muhlis Can, 2016. "Effects of the product diversification of exports on income at different stages of economic development," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-235, August.
    9. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    11. Shang, Yuping & Ma, Xiaowei & Bhatia, Meena & Alofaysan, Hind & Walsh, Steven T., 2024. "Unveiling the enigma: Exploring how uncertain crude oil prices shape investment expenditure and efficiency in Chinese enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Jorge Blazquez & Jose Maria Martin-Moreno & Rafaela Perez & Jesus Ruiz, 2017. "Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    13. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Zalina Zainal, Zalina & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Md. Salleh, Mohd Faisol, 2021. "The Effect of Asymmetrical Relationship of Oil Price Shocks on Gross Domestic Product," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 121-135.
    15. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2019. "Volatility spillover impact of world oil prices on leading Asian energy exporting and importing economies’ stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    17. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2020. "Dynamics of spillover network among oil and leading Asian oil trading countries’ stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    19. Niu, Hongli & Hu, Wenwen, 2024. "Static and dynamic interdependencies among natural gas, stocks of global major economies and uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Developing asian economies; world energy price; volatility models; aggregate economic activity; panel data estimation techniques; Q43; C33; O53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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