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The Economic Voting Hypothesis In The Presence Of Threshold Effects: Evidence From Asymmetric Modeling

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  • CHUN-PING CHANG

    (Department of Marketing Management, Shih Chien University at Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung, Taiwan)

  • CHIEN-CHIANG LEE

    (Department of Finance, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan)

Abstract

The issue of asymmetry and nonlinearity in the context of economic voting was proposed as far back as the 1970s. The aim of this paper is to revisit the economic voting phenomenon by investigating the asymmetric cointegration between government popularity and economic conditions in Taiwan over the period from 1992 to 2007. We employ an advanced threshold autoregressive model and find strong evidence of threshold cointegration relationships between our observed variables. Furthermore, an asymmetric error correction model indicates that voters use different economic indicators to evaluate government popularity in different regimes and the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is more rapid in the lower regime and slower in the higher regime. Finally, the evidence shows that the economic voting behavior is supported by the presence of the threshold effects. Based on the nonlinear, asymmetric and threshold effects, we are able to provide several critical implications concerning the governance of the incumbent political party, particularly, in relation to the promotion of economic policy aimed at improving its popularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2013. "The Economic Voting Hypothesis In The Presence Of Threshold Effects: Evidence From Asymmetric Modeling," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(01), pages 1-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:01:n:s0217590813500045
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590813500045
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    Cited by:

    1. E Goulas & C Kallandranis & A Zervoyianni, 2019. "Voting Behaviour and the Economy: Evidence from Greece," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 24(1), pages 35-58, March.
    2. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsieh, Meng-Chi, 2015. "Does globalization promote real output? Evidence from quantile cointegration regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 25-36.
    3. Bo Sui & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "The pioneer evidence of contagious corruption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 945-968, March.
    4. Wen, Jun & Yang, Di & Feng, Gen-Fu & Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2018. "Venture capital and innovation in China: The non-linear evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 148-162.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic voting; government popularity; threshold autoregressive model; threshold effect; asymmetric vector error-correction; C52; D72; P16; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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