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Is There a Presidential Election Cycle in Firm Financials?

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  • Ray R. Sturm

    (Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida, P. O. Box 161400, Orlando, FL 32816, USA)

Abstract

A presidential election cycle (PEC) in stock returns has been well-documented in the academic literature. Prior studies have pointed to economic policy as a cause of the phenomenon apparently overlooking the role of firm value. This study examines changes in firm valuation as the cause. Using firm-level data, this study finds a convincing cycle in firms’ book-to-market (BE/ME) ratios, earnings yield and most notable, in log-changes in annual revenue. In particular, log-changes in revenue during the election year appear to be instrumental in the previously document PEC in stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray R. Sturm, 2016. "Is There a Presidential Election Cycle in Firm Financials?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:19:y:2016:i:02:n:s0219091516500107
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091516500107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Ray Sturm, 2009. "The 'other' January effect and the presidential election cycle," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1355-1363.
    3. Gili Yen & Cheng-few Lee, 2008. "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): Past, Present and Future," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 305-329.
    4. Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
    5. Ron Bird & Daniel Choi & Danny Yeung, 2014. "Market uncertainty, market sentiment, and the post-earnings announcement drift," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 45-73, July.
    6. Xiaofeng Zhao & Kartono Liano & William G. Hardin, 2004. "Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 958-973, December.
    7. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
    8. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Peter Went, 2006. "Fundamental Value Hypothesis and Return Behavior: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 97-127.
    9. Martin T. Bohl & Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2008. "Real‐Time Forecasting and Political Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence for the United States," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 323-335, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. William T. Chittenden, 2020. "Political Parties In Power And U.S. Economic Performance," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 21-36.

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