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Does Momentum Trading Generate Extra Downside Risk?

Author

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  • Victoria Dobrynskaya

    (HSE University, School of Finance, 11 Pokrovskiy Boulevard, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Momentum strategies tend to provide low returns during market crashes, and they crash themselves when the market rebounds after significant crashes. This is reflected by positive downside market betas and negative upside market betas of zero-cost momentum portfolios. Such asymmetry in upside and downside risks is unfavorable for investors and requires a risk premium. It arises mechanically because of momentum portfolio rebalancing based on trailing asset performance. The asymmetry in upside and downside risks is a robust unifying feature of momentum portfolios in various geographical and asset markets. The momentum premium can be rationalized within a standard asset-pricing framework, where upside and downside risks are priced differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2022. "Does Momentum Trading Generate Extra Downside Risk?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-32, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:12:y:2022:i:02:n:s201013922250001x
    DOI: 10.1142/S201013922250001X
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum premium; momentum crashes; downside risk; downside beta; upside risk; upside beta; downside-risk CAPM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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