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Validating India’s Withdrawal from RCEP and Its Regional Future

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  • Monika Jain

    (Birla Institute of Management Technology, Plot Number 5, Knowledge Park 2, NCR, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh 201306, India)

Abstract

The withdrawal of India from negotiations on the world’s largest trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in November 2019 was a major setback for proponents of regional economic unity. This paper tries to evaluate India’s concerns and also the way forward for India. A review of trade between RCEP countries post-implementation is done to analyze India’s stand against joining the block. India decided to opt out of the agreement because of adverse trade balance, impact on the dairy sector, economic slowdown, experience with Free trade agreements (FTAs), China factor, data localization, rules of origin, and the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the factors responsible for this decision. Bilateral trade agreements with Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Rep.and ASEAN were already in place. So, trade between India and 12 RCEP member countries would not have changed after India’s inclusion in RCEP. There was fear of a massive surge in imported manufactures from China and dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This paper also evaluates the long-term repercussions of this decision and whether India missed out on becoming part of the global value chain n having greater market access through this block. India’s experience following protectionist policies did not yield the desired results in the past. So, an in-depth analysis has been done to validate if India has made a mistake by not joining RCEP or if India’s concerns and fears were justified and its regional future.

Suggested Citation

  • Monika Jain, 2024. "Validating India’s Withdrawal from RCEP and Its Regional Future," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 1-18, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:15:y:2024:i:02:n:s1793993323500229
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993323500229
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RCEP; FTA’s; trade deficit; China; trade agreements; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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