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Forward And Futures Prices With Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • ROBERT A. JARROW

    (Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA;
    Kamakura Corporation, USA)

  • PHILIP PROTTER

    (School of Operations Research, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-3801, USA)

Abstract

This paper extends and refines the Jarrow et al. (2006, 2008) arbitrage free pricing theory for bubbles to characterize forward and futures prices. Some new insights are obtained in this regard. In particular, we: (i) provide a canonical process for asset price bubbles suitable for empirical estimation, (ii) discuss new methods to test empirically for asset price bubbles using both spot prices and call/put option prices on the spot commodity, (iii) show that futures prices can have bubbles independent of the underlying asset's price bubble, (iv) relate forward and futures prices under bubbles, and (v) relate price options on futures with asset price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2009. "Forward And Futures Prices With Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(07), pages 901-924.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:12:y:2009:i:07:n:s0219024909005518
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024909005518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ross Williams, 2013. "Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages 460-461, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Jarrow, 2010. "Convenience yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-43, April.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    3. Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Sergio Pulido, 2015. "The Effect Of Trading Futures On Short Sale Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 311-338, April.
    4. Kardaras, Constantinos & Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "Strict local martingales and bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64967, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Katharina Oberpriller, 2022. "Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching," Papers 2210.13804, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    6. Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2011. "Foreign currency bubbles," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 67-83, April.
    7. Christoph Belak & Sören Christensen & Olaf Menkens, 2016. "Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization In A Market With Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-36, March.
    8. Francesca Biagini & Thomas Reitsam, 2019. "Asset Price Bubbles in market models with proportional transaction costs," Papers 1911.10149, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    9. Jarrow, Robert & Protter, Philip, 2012. "Discrete versus continuous time models: Local martingales and singular processes in asset pricing theory," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 58-62.
    10. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2016. "Liquidity induced asset bubbles via flows of ELMMs," Papers 1611.01440, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    11. Francesca Biagini & Hans Föllmer & Sorin Nedelcu, 2014. "Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-326, April.

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