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Serial Correlation, Periodicity And Scaling Of Eigenmodes In An Emerging Market

Author

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  • DIANE WILCOX

    (School of Computational & Applied Mathematics, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Private Bag 3, Wits, 2050, South Africa)

  • TIM GEBBIE

    (School of Computational & Applied Mathematics, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Private Bag 3, Wits, 2050, South Africa;
    QT Capital Management, P.O. Box 413407, Craighall, 2024, South Africa)

Abstract

We investigate serial correlation, periodic, aperiodic and scaling behavior of eigenmodes, i.e., daily price fluctuation time-series derived from eigenvectors, of correlation matrices of shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from January 1993 to December 2002.Periodic, or calendar, components are detected by spectral analysis. We find that calendar effects are limited to eigenmodes which correspond to eigenvalues outside the Wishart range. Using a variance ratio test, we uncover serial correlation in the first eigenmodes and find slight negative serial correlation for eigenmodes within the Wishart range. Our spectral analysis and variance ratio investigations suggest that interpolating missing data or illiquid trading days with zero-order hold introduces high frequency noise and spurious serial correlation. Aperiodic and scaling behavior of the eigenmodes are investigated by using rescaled-range (R/S) methods and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We find that DFA and classic and modified R/S exponents suggest the presence of long-term memory effects in the first five eigenmodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Diane Wilcox & Tim Gebbie, 2008. "Serial Correlation, Periodicity And Scaling Of Eigenmodes In An Emerging Market," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(07), pages 739-760.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:11:y:2008:i:07:n:s0219024908005020
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024908005020
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D. L. Wilcox & T. J. Gebbie, 2013. "On pricing kernels, information and risk," Papers 1310.4067, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2013.
    2. Fayyaaz Loonat & Tim Gebbie, 2018. "Learning zero-cost portfolio selection with pattern matching," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-38, September.
    3. Donovan Platt & Tim Gebbie, 2016. "The Problem of Calibrating an Agent-Based Model of High-Frequency Trading," Papers 1606.01495, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    4. Tim Gebbie & Fayyaaz Loonat, 2016. "Learning zero-cost portfolio selection with pattern matching," Papers 1605.04600, arXiv.org.

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