IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v09y2006i01ns0219024906003421.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Opinion Game: Stock Price Evolution From Microscopic Market Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • ANTON BOVIER

    (Weierstraß–Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin, Germany;
    Institut für Mathematik, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni, 136, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

  • JIŘÍ ČERNÝ

    (Weierstraß–Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • OSTAP HRYNIV

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Durham, South Rd, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by matching (clearing) offers until no further transactions can be performed. Some analytic results for simple special cases are presented. We also propose basic interaction mechanisms and show in simulations that these already reproduce certain particular features of prices in real stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Bovier & Jiří Černý & Ostap Hryniv, 2006. "The Opinion Game: Stock Price Evolution From Microscopic Market Modeling," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 91-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:09:y:2006:i:01:n:s0219024906003421
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024906003421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024906003421
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024906003421?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bak, P. & Paczuski, M. & Shubik, M., 1997. "Price variations in a stock market with many agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 430-453.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256.
    3. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    4. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian & Wang, Jianxin, 1997. "Order flow and the bid-ask spread: An empirical probability model of screen-based trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1471-1491, June.
    6. Mendelson, Haim, 1982. "Market Behavior in a Clearing House," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1505-1524, November.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    8. Ilija Zovko & J Doyne Farmer, 2002. "The power of patience: a behavioural regularity in limit-order placement," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 387-392.
    9. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    10. Tang, Lei-Han & Tian, Guang-Shan, 1999. "Reaction–diffusion–branching models of stock price fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 543-550.
    11. Domowitz, Ian & Wang, Jianxin, 1994. "Auctions as algorithms : Computerized trade execution and price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-60, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Weiss, 2009. "Executing large orders in a microscopic market model," Papers 0904.4131, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2010.
    2. Rama Cont & Sasha Stoikov & Rishi Talreja, 2010. "A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 549-563, June.
    3. Alexander Weiss, 2008. "Escaping the Brownian stalkers," Papers 0803.3590, arXiv.org.
    4. Hans Follmer & Alexander Schied, 2013. "Probabilistic aspects of finance," Papers 1309.7759, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anton Bovier & Jiri Cerny & Ostap Hryniv, 2004. "The Opinion Game: Stock price evolution from microscopic market modelling," Papers cond-mat/0401422, arXiv.org.
    2. Mike, Szabolcs & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2008. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 200-234, January.
    3. Szabolcs Mike & J. Doyne Farmer, 2005. "An empirical behavioral model of price formation," Papers physics/0509194, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2005.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    5. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
    6. J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    7. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    8. Damien Challet & Robin Stinchcombe, 2003. "Non-constant rates and over-diffusive prices in a simple model of limit order markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 155-162.
    9. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    10. Ioane Muni Toke, 2014. "Exact and asymptotic solutions of the call auction problem," Working Papers hal-01061857, HAL.
    11. Ioane Muni Toke, 2015. "Exact and asymptotic solutions of the call auction problem," Post-Print hal-01061857, HAL.
    12. Kyungsub Lee & Byoung Ki Seo, 2021. "Analytic formula for option margin with liquidity costs under dynamic delta hedging," Papers 2103.15302, arXiv.org.
    13. Ioane Muni Toke, 2014. "Exact and asymptotic solutions of the call auction problem," Papers 1407.4512, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    14. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    15. Hugh Luckock, 2003. "A steady-state model of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 385-404.
    16. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    17. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    18. Ichiki, Shingo & Nishinari, Katsuhiro, 2015. "Simple stochastic order-book model of swarm behavior in continuous double auction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 304-314.
    19. Iori, G. & Daniels, M.G. & Farmer, J.D. & Gillemot, L. & Krishnamurthy, S. & Smith, E., 2003. "An analysis of price impact function in order-driven markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 146-151.
    20. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2016. "Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 49-76, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:09:y:2006:i:01:n:s0219024906003421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.