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Hurricane season complexity: The case of North-Atlantic tropical cyclones

Author

Listed:
  • Elio Roca-Flores

    (Instituto Tecnológico de Aguascalientes, Avenida López Mateos 1081 Oriente, Fracc. Bona Gens, CP 20256, Aguascalientes, Ags., Mexico)

  • Gerardo G. Naumis

    (��Departamento de Sistemas Complejos, Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Apartado Postal 20-364, CP 04510, Ciudad de México, CDMX, Mexico)

  • Erick Madrigal-Solís

    (��Universidad de Guadalajara, Boulevard Marcelino García Barragán 1421, Colonia Olímpica, CP 44430, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico)

  • Klaus Fraedrich

    (�Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Elsa F. Torres

    (�Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), CP 04510, Ciudad de México, CDMX, México)

Abstract

The forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) seasons remains an elusive subject of study. In order to characterize their complexity, the energy of North Atlantic (NA) TC seasons is studied in this research work. The time evolution of the accumulated cyclone energy probability distribution is analyzed using mobile windows to calculate the statistical parameters: mean, standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness. A nonstationary distribution with clear excess of extreme energetic seasons when compared to a Gaussian distribution was found for the most recent years. The data also show a clear correlation between variability and mean, i.e. more energetic periods are more variable. Finally, the dynamics is analyzed using several techniques such as the lag plot, Hurst exponent and fractal dimension. A stochastic but persistent behavior was found. It is finally concluded that the NA TC season energy seems to be increasing both in magnitude and variability. This helps to elucidate the possible effect of global warming into increasing hurricane hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Elio Roca-Flores & Gerardo G. Naumis & Erick Madrigal-Solís & Klaus Fraedrich & Elsa F. Torres, 2023. "Hurricane season complexity: The case of North-Atlantic tropical cyclones," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(11), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:34:y:2023:i:11:n:s0129183123501516
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183123501516
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