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Global dynamics of GDP and trade

Author

Listed:
  • Abhin Kakkad

    (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat, India)

  • Arnab K. Ray

    (Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Gandhinagar 382007, Gujarat, India)

Abstract

We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modeling of the economic data, which are made available by the World Bank, we predict the maximum values of the growth of GDP and trade, as well as the duration over which exponential growth can be sustained. We set up the correlated growth of GDP and trade as the phase solutions of an autonomous second-order dynamical system. GDP and trade are related to each other by a power law, whose exponent seems to differentiate the six national economies into two types. Under conducive conditions for economic growth, our conclusions have general validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhin Kakkad & Arnab K. Ray, 2023. "Global dynamics of GDP and trade," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(02), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:34:y:2023:i:02:n:s0129183123500201
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183123500201
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