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An early estimation of the number of affected people in South Asia due to Covid-19 pandemic using susceptible, infected and recover model

Author

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  • Md. Enamul Hoque

    (Department of Physics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh)

Abstract

The Susceptible, Infected and Recover (SIR) model is a very simple model to estimate the dynamics of an epidemic. In the current pandemic due to Covid-19, the SIR model has been used to estimate the dynamics of infection for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and compared with that of China. Numerical solutions are used to obtain the value of parameters for the SIR model. It is predicted that the active case in Pakistan due to the SARS-CoV-2 will be comparable with that in China whereas it will be low for Bangladesh and India. The basic reproduction number, with fluctuations, for South Asian countries are predicted to be less than that of China. The susceptible population is also estimated to be under a million for Bangladesh and India but it becomes very large for Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Enamul Hoque, 2020. "An early estimation of the number of affected people in South Asia due to Covid-19 pandemic using susceptible, infected and recover model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 1-7, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:31:y:2020:i:10:n:s0129183120501405
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183120501405
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dongpo Hu & Xuexue Liu & Kun Li & Ming Liu & Xiao Yu, 2023. "Codimension-Two Bifurcations of a Simplified Discrete-Time SIR Model with Nonlinear Incidence and Recovery Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Bibha Dhungel & Md. Shafiur Rahman & Md. Mahfuzur Rahman & Aliza K. C. Bhandari & Phuong Mai Le & Nushrat Alam Biva & Stuart Gilmour, 2022. "Reliability of Early Estimates of the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.

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