Modeling the evolution of countries and ethnic groups

Two models of population growth, without and with competitive and beneficial interaction between populations, are applied to analyze the evolution of populations and subpopulations relative to the world average. Norway’s population grows less than the world average. Applying the least squares method against the 1970–2018 empirics, the model predicts that Norway’s immigrants grow exponentially, exceeding 50% of Norway’s 2053 population. Other effects may influence the growth dynamics in the near future, causing different outcomes. The logistic interactive model quantifies the beneficial impact of nonimmigrants on immigrants. South Africa’s population grows more than the world average. South Africa’s white population grows mostly convexly, and similarly to the world average during 1950–1975. After a maximum in 1995, approximately zero growth occurs toward 2018. The logistic interactive model estimates increase of the white population toward a maximum, and thereafter slight decrease toward a horizontal asymptote. The model estimates beneficial impact from the white population on South Africa’s nonwhite population, and competitive opposite impact. Zimbabwe’s population also grows more than the world average. Zimbabwe’s white population grows more than the world average during 1950–1975, and thereafter decreases abruptly and asymptotically toward zero. The implication is overall negative growth during 1950–2018. Assuming different parameter values for 1950–1974 and 1975–2018, the logistic interactive model implies better curve fitting due to allowing the two populations to impact each other competitively or beneficially.