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Exploration Of The Parameter Space In An Agent-Based Model Of Tuberculosis Spread: Emergence Of Drug Resistance In Developing Vs Developed Countries

Author

Listed:
  • AQUINO L. ESPINDOLA

    (Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil)

  • DANIEL GIRARDI

    (Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil)

  • THADEU J. P. PENNA

    (Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil;
    National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems, Brazil)

  • CHRIS T. BAUCH

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2K1, Canada)

  • ALEXANDRE S. MARTINEZ

    (National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems, Brazil;
    Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida dos Bandeirantes, 3900, 14.040-901, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil)

  • BRENNO C. T. CABELLA

    (Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida dos Bandeirantes, 3900, 14.040-901, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aquino L. Espindola & Daniel Girardi & Thadeu J. P. Penna & Chris T. Bauch & Alexandre S. Martinez & Brenno C. T. Cabella, 2012. "Exploration Of The Parameter Space In An Agent-Based Model Of Tuberculosis Spread: Emergence Of Drug Resistance In Developing Vs Developed Countries," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(06), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:23:y:2012:i:06:n:s0129183112500465
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183112500465
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    Cited by:

    1. Raydonal Ospina & Jaciele Oliveira & Cristiano Ferraz & André Leite & João Gondim, 2023. "Ensemble Algorithms to Improve COVID-19 Growth Curve Estimates," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.

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