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Microscopic Modeling The Demographic Changes

Author

Listed:
  • KATARZYNA BOŃKOWSKA

    (Department of Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Microbiology, Wrocław University, ul. Przybyszewskiego 63/77, 51-148 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • SZYMON SZYMCZAK

    (Department of Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Microbiology, Wrocław University, ul. Przybyszewskiego 63/77, 51-148 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • STANISŁAW CEBRAT

    (Department of Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Microbiology, Wrocław University, ul. Przybyszewskiego 63/77, 51-148 Wroclaw, Poland)

Abstract

We have adapted the Penna ageing model to simulate the profound changes in the age structures of populations caused by the better life style, medical care and decrease in birth rate. In Poland, after the political transformations in the last decade of the twentieth century, the increase in the expected lifespan has been accompanied by very deep decrease in birthrate, much below the minimum necessary for keeping the constant size of the population. Our microscopic model describes the changes in the age structure which have already happened and predicts the future, assuming that our attitudes in respect to life style and social relations will not change.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Bońkowska & Szymon Szymczak & Stanisław Cebrat, 2006. "Microscopic Modeling The Demographic Changes," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1484.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:17:y:2006:i:10:n:s0129183106009539
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183106009539
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