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Modeling Epidemic Based On Penna Model

Author

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  • MINGFENG HE

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of University Students' Innovation, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China)

  • QIUHUI PAN

    (Institute of University Students' Innovation, Department of Applied Physics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China)

  • BINGLIN YU

    (Institute of University Students' Innovation, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China)

Abstract

A cellular automata model is developed aiming to study the epidemic on a lattice of two dimensions. The characteristics of individual including reproduction, death by inherited diseases and age are studied in the Penna model. The spreading of epidemic and the reproduction of individual are considered as cellular automata. We shall mainly discuss the influence on the number of epidemical patients by infection rate and death rate. The results show that the existence of epidemic mainly depends on the infection rate and the death rate but not the initial ratio of patients. There are two reasons for nonexistent epidemic. As long as the infection rate is less than 0.3, the epidemic cannot spread. On the other hand, if the infection rate and the death rate are both high, the individuals with epidemic die out and the epidemic cannot spread, either. The epidemic can exist all along when the combination of infection rate and death rate are in the mid area.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingfeng He & Qiuhui Pan & Binglin Yu, 2005. "Modeling Epidemic Based On Penna Model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(05), pages 799-805.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:16:y:2005:i:05:n:s0129183105007509
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183105007509
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    Cited by:

    1. Keesen, Fabíola & Castro e Silva, Alcides & Pinheiro, Carlos Felipe S. & Arashiro, Everaldo & Ligeiro, Yan & Grelle, Carlos Eduardo de Viveiros, 2023. "New applications of an old individual-based model for biological dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).

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