An Ex-ante Evaluation Model of Urban Renewal Projects for the Sustainability Potential towards TOD and AUD based on a FDEMATEL-GIS-FI Approach

The transit-oriented development (TOD) and arts and culture-led urban development (AUD) have been evolved as two of primary strategies for sustainable urban revitalization. Ex-ante sustainability evaluation has emerged as a crucial procedure in the field of urban renewal to prevent non-sustainable redevelopment projects. However, in the ex-ante evaluation of urban renewal projects, TOD and AUD have ambiguous indicators, imprecise weights, and undetermined evaluation methodologies. To fill these gaps, this work combines GIS, fuzzy theory, and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to build an ex-ante evaluation model for evaluating the sustainability potential of urban renewal projects. Three areas in Guangzhou that are undergoing reconstruction and development are used as empirical instances in this study. This study provides a hierarchical structure of the evaluation framework which contains three dimensions, five criteria, and twenty-seven indicators, and also obtains the influential relationships among five criteria. In the empirical scenario, the Guangzhou Steel New Town area (GSNT) is reflected in the large potential benefits in both directions (i.e., TOD and AUD). In contrast, the existing urban renewal development plan does not adequately utilize the potential of the Shiqiao (SQ) area. This study, therefore, proposes that to increase land-use efficiency and subsequently economic development, the SQ area should either start from the current conditions or adapt its current strategy to renewal. With the help of this study, local decision-makers may examine the viability of urban renewal initiatives and gauge the possibility for three crucial Guangzhou urban renewal areas to flourish sustainably. This study also offers a decision-base for prospective future improvement in response to the evaluation outcomes.