IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijitdm/v16y2017i02ns0219622014500485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model of Bias-Driven Trend Followers and Interaction with Manipulators

Author

Listed:
  • Ke Liu

    (School of Business Adminstration, North China Electric Power University, Daxing, Beijing, China)

  • Kin Keung Lai

    (School of Business Adminstration, North China Electric Power University, Daxing, Beijing, China)

  • Jerome Yen

    (Department of Finance and Economics, Tung Wah College, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

  • Qing Zhu

    (International Business School of Shaanxi, Normal University, Xi’an City, Shanxi, China)

Abstract

Stock investors are not fully rational in trading and many behavioral biases that affect them. However, most of the literature on behavioral finance has put efforts only to explain empirical phenomena observed in financial markets; little attention has been paid to how individual investors’ trading performance is affected by behavioral biases. As against the common perception that behavioral biases are always detrimental to investment performance, we conjecture that these biases can sometimes yield better trading outcomes. Focusing on representativeness bias, conservatism and disposition effect, we construct a mathematical model in which the representative trend investor follows a Bayesian trading strategy based on an underlying Markov chain, switching beliefs between trending and mean-reversion. By this model, scenario analysis is undertaken to track investor behavior and performance under different patterns of market movements. Simulation results show the effect of biases on investor performance can sometimes be positive. Further, we investigate how manipulators could take advantage of investor biases to profit. The model’s potential for manipulation detection is demonstrated by real data of well-known manipulation cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Liu & Kin Keung Lai & Jerome Yen & Qing Zhu, 2017. "Model of Bias-Driven Trend Followers and Interaction with Manipulators," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 573-590, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitdm:v:16:y:2017:i:02:n:s0219622014500485
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219622014500485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219622014500485
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219622014500485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    2. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2009. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long‐Standing Preference‐Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 751-784, April.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1983. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 236-237, March.
    6. Hiroshi Takahashi, 2012. "An Analysis Of The Influence Of Dispersion Of Valuations On Financial Markets Through Agent-Based Modeling," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 143-166.
    7. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    8. Wei Zhang & Gen Li & Xiong Xiong & Yong Jie Zhang, 2010. "Trader Species With Different Decision Strategies And Price Dynamics In Financial Markets: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 327-344.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Damien Challet, 2016. "Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years," Papers 1605.00634, arXiv.org.
    3. K.S. Muehlfeld & G.U. Weitzel & A. van Witteloostuijn, 2012. "Fight or freeze? Individual differences in investors’ motivational systems and trading in experimental asset markets," Working Papers 12-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    4. Cary Frydman & Nicholas Barberis & Colin Camerer & Peter Bossaerts & Antonio Rangel, 2012. "Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility," NBER Working Papers 18562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Choi, Darwin, 2019. "Disposition sales and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 19-36.
    6. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    7. Kahya, Evrim Hilal & Ekinci, Cumhur, 2022. "Disposition bias among Borsa Istanbul investors: What do we know about type, size and trading frequency?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    8. James Bashall & Gizelle D. Willows & Darron West, 2018. "The Extent to Which Professional Advice Can Reduce the Disposition Effect: An Emerging Market Study," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2), pages 229-249, August.
    9. Beatrice Boumda & Darren Duxbury & Cristina Ortiz & Luis Vicente, 2021. "Do Socially Responsible Investment Funds Sell Losses and Ride Gains? The Disposition Effect in SRI Funds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-14, July.
    10. Rieger, Marc O. & Wang, Mei & Phan, Thuy Chung & Gong, Yujing, 2022. "Trend following or reversal: Does culture affect predictions and trading behavior?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
    13. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    14. Rajdeep Kumar Raut & Niladri Das & Ramkrishna Mishra, 2020. "Behaviour of Individual Investors in Stock Market Trading: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 818-833, June.
    15. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    17. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Bouteska, Ahmed, 2019. "The effect of investor sentiment on market reactions to financial earnings restatements: Lessons from the United States," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    19. Ahn, Yongkil, 2022. "The anatomy of the disposition effect: Which factors are most important?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    20. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitdm:v:16:y:2017:i:02:n:s0219622014500485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijitdm/ijitdm.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.