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Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Hem C. Basnet

    (Department of Business, Chadron State College, 1000 Main St., Chadron, NE, USA)

  • Puneet Vatsa

    (Shaw Communication Inc., Calgary, AB, Canada)

  • Subhash Sharma

    (Department of Economics, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, USA)

Abstract

This study explores the long- and short-run movement between oil prices and the real exchange rates of two large oil-exporting countries – Canada and Norway. Cointegration and serial correlation common features tests are jointly used to identify the long-term common trend and short-term common cycles. Our test results find that oil prices and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone have two shared trends and one shared cycle. The trend–cycle decomposition shows a great deal of positive comovement among the trend and cyclical components. The two currencies show economic dynamics very similar to crude oil prices. They do not exhibit any qualitative differences in the trajectory of the trend and cycles when controlling for different crude oil prices. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations play significant role in explaining the exchange rate movements of oil-exporting countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hem C. Basnet & Puneet Vatsa & Subhash Sharma, 2014. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 249-263, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:gejxxx:v:14:y:2014:i:02:n:gej-2013-0042
    DOI: 10.1515/GEJ-2013-0042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; real exchange rates; common features; US Dollar; decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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