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Dynamical Analysis Of A Novel Discrete Fractional Sitrs Model For Covid-19

Author

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  • AMR ELSONBATY

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia†Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt)

  • ZULQURNAIN SABIR

    (��Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan)

  • RAJAGOPALAN RAMASWAMY

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia)

  • WALEED ADEL

    (��Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt)

Abstract

In this paper, a discrete fractional Susceptible-Infected-Treatment-Recovered-Susceptible (SITRS) model for simulating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is presented. The model is a modification to a recent continuous-time SITR model by taking into account the possibility that people who have been infected before can lose their temporary immunity and get reinfected. Moreover, a modification is suggested in the present model to correct the improper assumption that the infection rates of both normal susceptible and old aged/seriously diseased people are equal. This modification complies with experimental data. The equilibrium points for the proposed model are found and results of thorough stability analysis are discussed. A full numerical simulation is carried out and gives a better analysis of the disease spread, influences of model’s parameters, and how to control the virus. Comparisons with clinical data are also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Amr Elsonbaty & Zulqurnain Sabir & Rajagopalan Ramaswamy & Waleed Adel, 2021. "Dynamical Analysis Of A Novel Discrete Fractional Sitrs Model For Covid-19," FRACTALS (fractals), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(08), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:fracta:v:29:y:2021:i:08:n:s0218348x21400351
    DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X21400351
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Umar & Zulqurnain Sabir & Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja & Shumaila Javeed & Hijaz Ahmad & Sayed K. Elagen & Ahmed Khames, 2021. "Numerical Investigations through ANNs for Solving COVID-19 Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Sabir, Zulqurnain & Said, Salem Ben & Baleanu, Dumitru, 2022. "Swarming optimization to analyze the fractional derivatives and perturbation factors for the novel singular model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Zulqurnain Sabir & Atef F. Hashem & Adnène Arbi & Mohamed A. Abdelkawy, 2023. "Designing a Bayesian Regularization Approach to Solve the Fractional Layla and Majnun System," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Mohammad Izadi & Mahmood Parsamanesh & Waleed Adel, 2022. "Numerical and Stability Investigations of the Waste Plastic Management Model in the Ocean System," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-26, December.
    5. El-Mesady, A. & Elsonbaty, Amr & Adel, Waleed, 2022. "On nonlinear dynamics of a fractional order monkeypox virus model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

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