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Prediction Of The Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone Extent Based Upon Its Multifractal Property

Author

Listed:
  • YUE LIU

    (Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • XIAOPING PANG

    (Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China†Key Laboratory of Polar Surveying and Mapping, National Administration of Surveying Mapping and Geoinformation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • XI ZHAO

    (Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China†Key Laboratory of Polar Surveying and Mapping, National Administration of Surveying Mapping and Geoinformation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • ALFRED STEIN

    (��Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands)

  • XIANG ZHANG

    (�School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • QING JI

    (Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China†Key Laboratory of Polar Surveying and Mapping, National Administration of Surveying Mapping and Geoinformation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • MENG QU

    (Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China)

  • JIANG DONG

    (�Tianjin Hydrographic Center, The Navigation Guarantee Center of North China Sea, Tianjin 300222, P. R. China)

Abstract

The marginal ice zone (MIZ) around Antarctica is an important air–ice–ocean–wave interaction area and a crucial habitat for marine life. Given its dynamic nature, it is essential to understand and quantify both the short- and long-term changes of its extent. In this study, we investigated the MIZ extent time series using multifractal spectrum and R/S analysis, examining Antarctica as a whole and per sub-region. The MIZ extent was predicted using a back-propagation (BP) algorithm. The results show that the wide multifractal spectrum width of the MIZ extent time series has strong multifractal features for the entire Antarctic and for the five sub-regions. By comparing the spectrum width of the original time series with those of a shuffled series, we found that multifractality is related to long-range correlations in the time series. The Hurst exponent obtained using the R/S analysis indicates that the long-range correlation over six months is strongest for all time intervals. Compared to the autoregressive integrated moving average model, the mean absolute percentage error obtained using the BP algorithm was lower by 4–15%. We conclude that the BP algorithm combined with the multifractal property is well suited to predict the Antarctic MIZ extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Liu & Xiaoping Pang & Xi Zhao & Alfred Stein & Xiang Zhang & Qing Ji & Meng Qu & Jiang Dong, 2021. "Prediction Of The Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone Extent Based Upon Its Multifractal Property," FRACTALS (fractals), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(02), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:fracta:v:29:y:2021:i:02:n:s0218348x21500353
    DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X21500353
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