A Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Embodied Carbon Productivity and Embodied Value Added in China’s Industrial Sectors: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Decoupling Model and the Panel Multinomial Logit Model

Based on the decoupling theory, this paper analyzes the relationship between the embodied carbon productivity and the embodied value added in China’s industrial sectors, evaluates the development mode of the sectors, and explores a reasonable path to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the sectors based on the panel multinomial logit model. The empirical conclusions are as follows: (i) Except for the decrease in 2002–2005, the embodied carbon productivity achieved rapid growth in other time periods; during the period of 2002–2020, the embodied value added increased by 339.59 percentage points, with an average annual growth rate of 8.57%, and the embodied carbon productivity increased by 70.59 percentage points, with an average annual growth rate of 3.01%. (ii) As the embodied value added of the 28 industrial subsectors expanded, the changes in their embodied carbon productivity were different. This process can be roughly classified into three main phases: The first phase is the extensive growth period of 2002–2005, in which the embodied carbon productivity of most industrial subsectors declined while the embodied value added expanded; the second phase is the low-carbon transformation and development period of 2005–2012, during which the recessive positive-efficiency emission reduction became the dominant mode; and the third phase is the low-carbon development period of 2012–2020, in which the high-efficiency emission reduction became the dominant mode. (iii) When the industrial sectors are in an expansive state, increasing the substitution of capital for energy factors will make the transformation of industrial sectors more inclined to expansive high-efficiency emission reduction mode, and when the industrial sectors fall into recession, optimizing the energy structure will produce the same effect.