Influencing Factors and Future Trends of Global Climate Governance Pattern and China’s Responsive Measures

Since the 1990s, the global climate governance pattern has kept evolving from the initial two camps of developed and developing countries to the current pattern of multi-polarity, featuring the withdrawal and return of Paris Agreement by the United States, the declining leadership of the EU, the coalition of BASIC countries, and the rise of the least developed countries and small island developing states as newly emerging forces. This evolution mainly results from the combined effects of three factors: (i) The changes in the carbon emission pattern driven by population, economic growth, and technological progress; (ii) the stronger influences and power of discourse of the least developed countries and small island developing states as derived from the impacts of and vulnerability to climate change; and (iii) the impacts brought about by uncertain factors such as the uncertainties in terms of science, politics, and technological progress. These factors will still affect the trend of global climate governance in the future. The carbon emissions of developed countries will continue to take a less share in the world’s total, while the proportion of India and the least developed countries in this respect will rise rapidly, which will make global climate governance face a dilemma. Technological progress and the positive actions of non-state entities indicate that the international climate system needs reform and innovation. The rapid development of China over the past three decades has been synchronized with the evolution of the global governance structure, and has naturally become one of the internal factors driving the evolution of climate governance pattern. In the face of various pressure and challenges, China has been pushed to the forefront of global climate governance. China should observe the general trends within and outside the country, and respond to them rationally: (i) Set the proper role of China in the new pattern of global climate governance, i.e. a cooperation leader who should make positive contributions and avoid premature advance; (ii) innovate the concept and institutional system of global climate governance, and study and put forward the Chinese approach that is positive, pragmatic, and operable; (iii) help low-income countries cope with climate change by virtue of renewable energy technology and industrial cooperation, and achieve a win–win situation by encouraging Chinese enterprises to “go out” and helping low-income countries effectively control carbon emissions; and (iv) strengthen the climate cooperation with non-state actors, give play to their special role, and promote China’s comprehensive reform and opening-up.