Carbon Tariffs’ Impacts on China’s Economy and Carbon Emission: A Study Based on META-Regression Analysis

During the implementation of the measures for reducing carbon emissions, to protect the international competitiveness of their carbon-intensive products, some developed countries in the name of preventing carbon leakage have deliberately avoided the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR)” prescribed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and worked actively to propose the collection of carbon tariffs to make developing countries share the responsibilities of reducing global emissions. The existing studies tend to confirm that carbon tariffs, once put into practice, will directly affect the export trade of developing countries represented by China, and particularly exert a significant negative impact on the export trade of those countries’ carbon-intensive industries. This paper used META-regression analysis to summarize and quantitatively analyze the results of an empirical research that uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to research on the impacts brought by carbon tariff policy to China’s economy and carbon emissions, finding that the sample characteristics, model specification and the assumption about carbon tariff rates in the research exert direct impacts on the final conclusions of empirical stimulation. Although carbon tariffs are still in the proposal stage, due to the vaccum of international governace in this area, the developed countries have a room to carry out the policies related to carbon tariffs or invisible carbon tariffs. Studies show that carbon tariff policy will deal a blow to China’s export trade and further undermine China’s overall economic output and welfare level, while producing very limited effects on carbon emissions reduction. Therefore, the Chinese Government should stick to its basic position as resolving carbon tariffs-related issues under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, actively promote relevant international governance mechanisms, formulate targeted countermeasures, improve the export structure of industrial products, optimize industrial structure and also stay alert to some developed countries’ attempt to avoid the disputes over carbon tariffs and use some invisible carbon tariffs to set up new trade barriers.