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Scenarios For The Deployment Of Carbon Capture And Storage In The Power Sector In A Portfolio Of Mitigation Options

Author

Listed:
  • JENNIFER MORRIS

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, USA)

  • HAROON KHESHGI

    (#x2020;ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, 1545 Route 22 East, Annandale NJ 08801, USA)

  • SERGEY PALTSEV

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, USA)

  • HOWARD HERZOG

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, USA)

Abstract

Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we explore factors influencing carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment in power generation and its role in mitigating carbon emissions. We find that in the 2∘C scenario with EPPA’s base-case technology cost and performance assumptions, CCS plays an important role in the second half of the century: by 2100 CCS is applied to almost 40% of world electricity production, with a third coming from coal with CCS and the other two-thirds from gas with CCS. Results on CCS deployment depend on the assumed fraction of carbon captured in CCS power plants, as emissions constraints get tighter and the carbon price rises. Adding options for higher capture fractions or offsetting uncaptured emissions leads to greater deployment of CCS than in the 2∘C base case. We provide a sensitivity analysis by making favorable assumptions for CCS, nuclear and renewables. We also explore regional differences in the deployment of CCS. We find that US and Europe mostly rely on gas CCS, whereas China relies on coal CCS and India pursues both options. We also assess how these projections align with assessment of CO2 storage potential, and find that storage potential is larger than storage demand at both global and regional scales. Ultimately, we find that under stringent mitigation scenarios, the power sector relies on a mix of technological options, and the conditions that favor a particular mix of technologies differ by region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Morris & Haroon Kheshgi & Sergey Paltsev & Howard Herzog, 2021. "Scenarios For The Deployment Of Carbon Capture And Storage In The Power Sector In A Portfolio Of Mitigation Options," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-29, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:12:y:2021:i:01:n:s2010007821500019
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007821500019
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Y.-H. Henry Chen & Erik Ens & Olivier Gervais & Hossein Hosseini & Craig Johnston & Serdar Kabaca & Miguel Molico & Sergey Paltsev & Alex Proulx & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2022. "Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk," Discussion Papers 2022-1, Bank of Canada.
    2. Gurgel, Angelo & Mignone, Bryan K. & Morris, Jennifer & Kheshgi, Haroon & Mowers, Matthew & Steinberg, Daniel & Herzog, Howard & Paltsev, Sergey, 2023. "Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    3. Paltsev, Sergey & Morris, Jennifer & Kheshgi, Haroon & Herzog, Howard, 2021. "Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

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