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Return and Volatility Transmissions between Metals and Stocks: A Study of the Emerging Asian Markets by Using the VAR-AGARCH Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Imran Yousaf

    (Air University School of Management, Air University, Islamabad, Pakistan)

  • Shoaib Ali

    (Air University School of Management, Air University, Islamabad, Pakistan)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Department of Finance, Fintech Center, and Big Data Research Center, Asia University, Taiwan, ROC3Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taiwan, ROC4Department of Economics and Finance, The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This study examines the return and volatility transmission/spillover between (Precious and Industrial) metals and stocks in the emerging Asian markets in the entire studying period and the two crisis sub-periods: the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Chinese Stock market crash sub-periods, and the normal sub-period that does not have any crisis. In addition, we estimate the optimal weights and hedge ratios for both metals and stocks. Employing the VAR-AGARCH model to estimate spillover, the results reveal the unidirectional return spillover from both precious and industrial metals to most of the Asian equity markets in the entire period as well as in the GFC and normal sub-periods but not the sub-period of the Chinese stock market crash. Besides, we reveal that there are unidirectional or bidirectional volatility transmissions between most of the precious metals and the Asian stock markets during the entire period and all the sub-periods. In contrast, the volatility spillover is not significant between most of the industrial metals and Asian stock markets during the entire period and all the sub-periods. On the other hand, our analysis on both optimal weight and hedge ratios suggests that adding nearly any metal to a portfolio of emerging Asian stocks improves its risk-adjusted return and helps to effectively hedge against stock risk exposure over both crisis and non-crisis sub-periods. Overall, these findings provide useful insights for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Return and Volatility Transmissions between Metals and Stocks: A Study of the Emerging Asian Markets by Using the VAR-AGARCH Approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 39(04), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:apjorx:v:39:y:2022:i:04:n:s0217595920400205
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217595920400205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Mirza, Nawazish, 2024. "Mineral Metamorphosis: Tracing the static and dynamic nexus between minerals and global south markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Woode, John Kingsley & Owusu Junior, Peterson & Adam, Anokye M., 2024. "Dynamic interdependence structure of industrial metals and the African stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Mosab I. Tabash & Musla Valappil & Uzma Iqbal & Umar Farooq & Kai-Yin Woo, 2023. "Stock market Reaction to General Election in Pakistan: An Event Study Methodology," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(4), pages 90-113, December.
    4. Wu, Xu & Wang, Pei-Yu & Wang, Kun, 2023. "The effect of stabilization fund to rescue stock market based on expected return-capita circulation equation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    5. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Hanif, Hasan & Gubareva, Mariya, 2024. "The resilience of Shariah-compliant investments: Probing the static and dynamic connectedness between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and GCC equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Wang, Yi & Ali, Shoaib & Ayaz, Muhammad, 2024. "Equity markets and ESG dynamics: Assessing spillovers and portfolio strategies through time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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