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Are Nonlinear Trading Rules Profitable In The Chinese Stock Market?

Author

Listed:
  • TERENCE TAI-LEUNG CHONG

    (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong)

  • TAU-HING LAM

    (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong)

  • MELVIN J. HINICH

    (Applied Research Laboratories, University of Texas at Austin, USA)

Abstract

The rise of China in the world economy has attracted a great deal of international attention. This paper investigates the performance of nonlinear self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model-based trading rules in the Chinese stock market. We compare the performance of the SETAR model with the autoregressive (AR) model and the moving average (MA) trading rules. Our results indicate that trading rules are profitable in the B-share market, and that the nonlinear SETAR rule outperforms the other two linear rules in general.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Tau-Hing Lam & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "Are Nonlinear Trading Rules Profitable In The Chinese Stock Market?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:05:y:2009:i:01:n:s201049520950002x
    DOI: 10.1142/S201049520950002X
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Tang, Alan Tsz Chung & Chan, Kwun Ho, 2016. "An Empirical Comparison of Fast and Slow Stochastics," MPRA Paper 80559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
    3. Kim man Lui & Terence T. L. Chong, 2013. "Do Technical Analysts Outperform Novice Traders: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3080-3087.
    4. Lawrence Xaba & Ntebogang Moroke & Johnson Arkaah & Charlemagne Pooe, 2015. "A Comparative Study of Stock Price Forecasting using nonlinear models," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2704207, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SETAR model; bootstrap; GARCH-M model; G11; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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