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Shifting Trade Winds: Southeast Asia’s Response to the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute

Author

Listed:
  • SUNGHUN LIM

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Louisiana, United States)

  • ANH PHUOC THIEN NGUYEN

    (Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, United States)

Abstract

This study delves into the trade dynamics of Southeast Asian countries in response to the trade dispute between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Our analysis uncovers diverse patterns of trade diversion effects among eight Southeast Asian countries, revealing significant disparities in their reactions to this trade dispute. Specifically, we observe Viet Nam’s substantial export growth to both the US and the PRC, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and strategic relocations. Thailand, on the other hand, experiences positive effects on its exports to the US, potentially due to trade diversion, alongside diminishing exports to the PRC. Moreover, we find sector-specific trends, such as an upsurge in machinery exports from Viet Nam, Thailand, and Indonesia. In contrast, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Singapore largely sustained their respective export levels to the US. Our findings highlight the importance of tailored trade policies that consider each Southeast Asian country’s unique industrial structure and degree of global value chain integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunghun Lim & Anh Phuoc Thien Nguyen, 2024. "Shifting Trade Winds: Southeast Asia’s Response to the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 41(02), pages 57-80, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:41:y:2024:i:02:n:s0116110524400134
    DOI: 10.1142/S0116110524400134
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; Southeast Asia; trade diversion; US–PRC trade dispute;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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