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Constructing a Coincident Economic Indicator for India: How Well Does It Track Gross Domestic Product?

Author

Listed:
  • SOUMYA BHADURY

    (Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India)

  • SAURABH GHOSH

    (Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India)

  • PANKAJ KUMAR

    (Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India)

Abstract

In India, the first official estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is released approximately 7–8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct Coincident Economic Indicators for India (CEIIs) using a sequentially expanding list of 6, 9, and 12 high-frequency indicators. These indicators represent various sectors, display high contemporaneous correlation with GDP, and track GDP turning points well. CEII-6 includes domestic economic activity indicators, while CEII-9 incorporates indicators of trade and services and CEII-12 adds financial indicators in the model. We include a financial block in CEII-12 to reflect the growing influence of the financial sector on economic activity. CEIIs are estimated using a dynamic factor model which extracts a common trend underlying the high-frequency indicators. The extracted trend provides a real-time assessment of the state of the economy and helps identify sectors contributing to economic fluctuations. Furthermore, GDP nowcasts using CEIIs show considerable gains in both in-sample and out-of-sample accuracy. In particular, we observe that our GDP growth nowcast closely tracks the recent slowdown in the Indian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Soumya Bhadury & Saurabh Ghosh & Pankaj Kumar, 2021. "Constructing a Coincident Economic Indicator for India: How Well Does It Track Gross Domestic Product?," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(02), pages 237-277, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:38:y:2021:i:02:n:s0116110521500104
    DOI: 10.1142/S0116110521500104
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic factor model; economic cycle; nowcast; turning-point analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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