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A Maxent Model For Macroscenario Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • SIMONE LANDINI

    (IRES Piemonte–Socioeconomic Research Institute of Piedmont, via Nizza 18, 10125, Turin, Italy)

  • CORRADO DI GUILMI

    (Department of Economics, Universitá Politecnica delle Marche, P.le Martelli 8, 60121, Ancona, Italy)

  • MAURO GALLEGATI

    (Department of Economics, Universitá Politecnica delle Marche, P.le Martelli 8, 60121, Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper, starting from Jaynes' MaxEnt methodology [10, 11], we follow the original idea of Aoki [1] to implement a canonical MaxEnt inference modelfor the replication ofindustrial firms' dynamics over a space of economic states. We develop an aggregate model to infer the distributions of agents at meso level using representative states. In particular, we estimate the access probability for agents in different states consistently with macroscopic economic constraints. The model is calibrated on the basis of a sample of firms, drawn from the AMADEUS database, within the manufacturing industry made up of nine sectors of economic activity from 1995 to 2004, and results come to experimental proof at aggregate macroscopic level.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Landini & Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "A Maxent Model For Macroscenario Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 719-744.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:11:y:2008:i:05:n:s021952590800201x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021952590800201X
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Foster, 2006. "Why Is Economics Not a Complex Systems Science?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1069-1091, December.
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