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Warning Systems in Risk Management

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  • M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell

Abstract

A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost‐effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment (1) of the signals, and (2) of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade‐off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long‐term effects of “crying wolf” and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 1986. "Warning Systems in Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 223-234, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:6:y:1986:i:2:p:223-234
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00210.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. E. Paté‐Cornell & J. E. Neu, 1985. "Warning Systems and Defense Policy: A Reliability Model for the Command and Control of U.S. Nuclear Forces," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 121-138, June.
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    1. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 445-454, June.

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