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Uncertainties in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analyses

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  • W. E. Vesely
  • D. M. Rasmuson

Abstract

There are many uncertainties in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). We identify the different types of uncertainties and describe their implications. We then summarize the uncertainty analyses which have performed in current PRAs and characterize results which have been obtained. We draw conclusions regarding interpretations of uncertainties, areas having largest uncertainties, and needs which exist in uncertainty analysis. We finally characterize the robustness of various utilizations of PRA results.

Suggested Citation

  • W. E. Vesely & D. M. Rasmuson, 1984. "Uncertainties in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analyses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(4), pages 313-322, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:4:y:1984:i:4:p:313-322
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00950.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Anand Patwardhan & Mitchell J. Small, 1992. "Bayesian Methods for Model Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Future Sea Level Rise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 513-523, December.
    2. Ludovic Gaudard & Franco Romerio, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Benjamin A. Lyons & Heather Akin & Natalie Jomini Stroud, 2020. "Proximity (Mis)perception: Public Awareness of Nuclear, Refinery, and Fracking Sites," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 385-398, February.
    4. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.

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