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Low Probability Accidents

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  • Howard Kunreuther
  • Joanne Linnerooth

Abstract

Experts frequently differ on their estimates of risk associated with accidents that have a low probability of occurrence. Those who stand to benefit from siting a new facility often perceive it as acceptably safe, using expert opinion to defend their argument. Potential losers find data to suggest that the new technology is too hazardous. This paper contrasts the role of risk assessments of low probability events in siting Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. In both cases the decision process was a rather lengthy one due to conflicts between interested stakeholders. The paper discusses the potential of compensation and insurance as policy tools for facilitating negotiation. Four criteria for improving the siting process in any country are also outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Kunreuther & Joanne Linnerooth, 1984. "Low Probability Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 143-152, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:4:y:1984:i:2:p:143-152
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00943.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lester B. Lave & Thomas Romer, 1983. "Specifying Risk Goals: Inherent Problems with Democratic Institutions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3), pages 217-227, September.
    2. Howard Kunreuther & Joanne Linnerooth & James W. Vaupel, 1984. "A Decision-Process Perspective on Risk and Policy Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 475-485, April.
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