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Setting Risk‐Informed Environmental Standards for Bacillus Anthracis Spores

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  • Tao Hong
  • Patrick L. Gurian
  • Nicholas F. Dudley Ward

Abstract

In many cases, human health risk from biological agents is associated with aerosol exposures. Because air concentrations decline rapidly after a release, it may be necessary to use concentrations found in other environmental media to infer future or past aerosol exposures. This article presents an approach for linking environmental concentrations of Bacillus. anthracis (B. anthracis) spores on walls, floors, ventilation system filters, and in human nasal passages with human health risk from exposure to B. anthracis spores. This approach is then used to calculate example values of risk‐informed concentration standards for both retrospective risk mitigation (e.g., prophylactic antibiotics) and prospective risk mitigation (e.g., environmental clean up and reoccupancy). A large number of assumptions are required to calculate these values, and the resulting values have large uncertainties associated with them. The values calculated here suggest that documenting compliance with risks in the range of 10−4 to 10−6 would be challenging for small diameter (respirable) spore particles. For less stringent risk targets and for releases of larger diameter particles (which are less respirable and hence less hazardous), environmental sampling would be more promising.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Hong & Patrick L. Gurian & Nicholas F. Dudley Ward, 2010. "Setting Risk‐Informed Environmental Standards for Bacillus Anthracis Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1602-1622, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:10:p:1602-1622
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01443.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy A. Bartrand & Mark H. Weir & Charles N. Haas, 2008. "Dose‐Response Models for Inhalation of Bacillus anthracis Spores: Interspecies Comparisons," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1115-1124, August.
    2. Vladimir P. Reshetin & James L. Regens, 2003. "Simulation Modeling of Anthrax Spore Dispersion in a Bioterrorism Incident," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1135-1145, December.
    3. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2008. "Overcoming Confirmation Bias in Causal Attribution: A Case Study of Antibiotic Resistance Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1155-1172, October.
    4. Charles N. Haas, 2002. "On the Risk of Mortality to Primates Exposed to Anthrax Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 189-193, April.
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    1. Bradford W. Gutting & Andrey Rukhin & David Marchette & Ryan S. Mackie & Brandolyn Thran, 2016. "Dose‐Response Modeling for Inhalational Anthrax in Rabbits Following Single or Multiple Exposures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2031-2038, November.

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