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Analyzing BSE Transmission to Quantify Regional Risk

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  • Aline A. De Koeijer

Abstract

As a result of consumer fears and political concerns related to BSE as a risk to human health, a need has arisen recently for more sensitive methods to detect BSE and more accurate methods to determine BSE incidence. As a part of the development of such methods, it is important to be able to identify groups of animals with above‐average BSE risk. One of the well‐known risk factors for BSE is age, as very young animals do not develop the disease, and very old animals are less likely to develop the disease. Here, we analyze which factors have a strong influence on the age distribution of BSE in a population. Building on that, we develop a simple set of calculation rules for classifying the BSE risk in a given cattle population. Required inputs are data on imports and on the BSE control measures in place over the last 10 or 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Aline A. De Koeijer, 2007. "Analyzing BSE Transmission to Quantify Regional Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1095-1103, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:1095-1103
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00946.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Chu‐Chih Chen & Yin‐Han Wang & Kuen‐Yuh Wu, 2013. "Consumption of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Contaminated Beef and the Risk of Variant Creutzfeldt‐Jakob Disease," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(11), pages 1958-1968, November.
    2. M. Kadohira & M. A. Stevenson & H. R. Høgåsen & A. de Koeijer, 2012. "A Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Japan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2198-2208, December.

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