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On the Use of Hierarchical Probabilistic Models for Characterizing and Managing Uncertainty in Risk/Safety Assessment

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  • Ralph L. Kodell
  • James J. Chen

Abstract

A general probabilistically‐based approach is proposed for both cancer and noncancer risk/safety assessments. The familiar framework of the original ADI/RfD formulation is used, substituting in the numerator a benchmark dose derived from a hierarchical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model and in the denominator a unitary uncertainty factor derived from a hierarchical animal/average human/sensitive human model. The empirical probability distributions of the numerator and denominator can be combined to produce an empirical human‐equivalent distribution for an animal‐derived benchmark dose in external‐exposure units.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph L. Kodell & James J. Chen, 2007. "On the Use of Hierarchical Probabilistic Models for Characterizing and Managing Uncertainty in Risk/Safety Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 433-437, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:2:p:433-437
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00895.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul S. Price & Heli M. Hollnagel & Jack M. Zabik, 2009. "Characterizing the Noncancer Toxicity of Mixtures Using Concepts from the TTC and Quantitative Models of Uncertainty in Mixture Toxicity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(11), pages 1534-1548, November.

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