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Terrorist Population Dynamics Model

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  • Mark P. Kaminskiy
  • Bilal M. Ayyub

Abstract

A system that includes a number of terrorist cells is considered. The cells can consist of one or more terrorists. The current number of terrorist cells is further denoted by N(t), where t is a current time counted from any appropriate origin. The objective is to find the evolution of the system in terms of N(t) and some interpretable parameters, such as the initial number of the terrorist cells N0=N(0), the cell disabling rate constant λ (or the cell half‐life t1/2), and the rate of formation of new cells P. The cost‐effectiveness analysis, performed in the framework of the model, reveals that the effectiveness of disabling a terrorist cell is getting worse after 2–3 half‐lives of a cell, which shows that if the anti‐terrorist actions have not reached their goal during that time, the respective policy should be considered for revision, using the risk assessment consideration. Another important issue raised concerns balancing the efforts related to counterterrorism actions inside the system and the efforts protecting its borders. The respective data analysis is suggested and illustrated using simulated data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark P. Kaminskiy & Bilal M. Ayyub, 2006. "Terrorist Population Dynamics Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 747-752, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:3:p:747-752
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00780.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kjell Hausken, 2020. "Governmental combat of migration between competing terrorist organisations," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(3), pages 21-46.
    2. Hausken, Kjell, 2019. "The dynamics of terrorist organizations," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 6(C).
    3. Navid Ghaffarzadegan, 2008. "How a System Backfires: Dynamics of Redundancy Problems in Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1669-1687, December.
    4. Hausken, Kjell, 2019. "Governmental combat of the dynamics of multiple competing terrorist organizations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 33-55.

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