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The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent

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  • Martin Peterson

Abstract

This article argues that no version of the precautionary principle can be reasonably applied to decisions that may lead to fatal outcomes. In support of this strong claim, a number of desiderata are proposed, which reasonable rules for rational decision making ought to satisfy. Thereafter, two impossibility theorems are proved, showing that no version of the precautionary principle can satisfy the proposed desiderata. These theorems are directly applicable to recent discussions of the precautionary principle in medicine, biotechnology, environmental management, and related fields. The impossibility theorems do not imply, however, that the precautionary principle is of no relevance at all in policy discussions. Even if it is not a reasonable rule for rational decision making, it is possible to interpret the precautionary principle in other ways, e.g., as an argumentative tool or as an epistemic principle favoring a reversed burden of proof.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Peterson, 2006. "The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 595-601, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:3:p:595-601
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00781.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Søren Holm & John Harris, 1999. "Precautionary principle stifles discovery," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 398-398, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Terje Aven, 2019. "Comments to Orri Stefánsson's Paper on the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1223-1224, June.
    2. Aven, Terje, 2019. "The cautionary principle in risk management: Foundation and practical use," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Carla Susana A. Assuad, 2020. "Understanding Rationality in Sustainable Development Decision-Making: Unfolding the Motivations for Action," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1086-1119, September.
    4. Thomas Boyer‐Kassem, 2017. "The Precautionary Principle Has Not Been Shown to Be Incoherent: A Reply to Peterson," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2039-2040, November.
    5. Terje Aven, 2020. "Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1889-1899, October.
    6. Yan Cai & Eunmi Kim, 2019. "Sustainable Development in World Trade Law: Application of the Precautionary Principle in Korea-Radionuclides," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    7. H. Orri Stefánsson, 2019. "On the Limits of the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1204-1222, June.
    8. Thomas Boyer‐Kassem, 2017. "Is the Precautionary Principle Really Incoherent?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2026-2034, November.
    9. Martin Peterson, 2017. "Yes, The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2035-2038, November.
    10. Lara Buchak, 2023. "Philosophical foundations for worst-case arguments," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 215-242, August.
    11. Tim Lewens, 2010. "The risks of progress: precaution and the case of human enhancement," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 207-216, March.

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