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Functional Approximation and Optimal Specification of the Mechanical Risk Index

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  • Mark J. Kaiser
  • Allan G. Pulsipher

Abstract

The mechanical risk index (MRI) is a numerical measure that quantifies the complexity of drilling a well. The purpose of this article is to examine the role of the component factors of the MRI and its structural and parametric assumptions. A meta‐modeling methodology is applied to derive functional expressions of the MRI, and it is shown that the MRI can be approximated in terms of a linear functional. The variation between the MRI measure and its functional specification is determined empirically, and for a reasonable design space, the functional specification is shown to a good approximating representation. A drilling risk index is introduced to quantify the uncertainty in the time and cost associated with drilling a well. A general methodology is outlined to create an optimal MRI specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Kaiser & Allan G. Pulsipher, 2005. "Functional Approximation and Optimal Specification of the Mechanical Risk Index," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1313-1323, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:25:y:2005:i:5:p:1313-1323
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00670.x
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