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Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide‐Tolerant Oilseed Crops

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  • Martin P. Krayer von Krauss
  • Elizabeth A. Casman
  • Mitchell J. Small

Abstract

One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet—and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no‐till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate‐tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide‐tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and ‐flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems.

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  • Martin P. Krayer von Krauss & Elizabeth A. Casman & Mitchell J. Small, 2004. "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide‐Tolerant Oilseed Crops," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1515-1527, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:6:p:1515-1527
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00546.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Martine J. Barons & Lael E. Walsh & Edward E. Salakpi & Linda Nichols, 2024. "A Decision Support System for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Loss Reduction under Uncertain Agricultural Policy Frameworks," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Kaatje Bollaerts & David Vose & Dominiek Maes & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Georges Daube & Marc Aerts & Koen Mintiens, 2009. "NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 502-517, April.
    3. Ian J. Mauro & Stéphane M. McLachlan, 2008. "Farmer Knowledge and Risk Analysis: Postrelease Evaluation of Herbicide‐Tolerant Canola in Western Canada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 463-476, April.
    4. Baruch Fischhoff & Wändi Bruin & Ümit Güvenç & Denise Caruso & Larry Brilliant, 2006. "Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 131-149, September.
    5. Kara Morgan, 2005. "Development of a Preliminary Framework for Informing the Risk Analysis and Risk Management of Nanoparticles," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1621-1635, December.
    6. Mitchell J. Small & Ümit Güvenç & Michael L. DeKay, 2014. "When Can Scientific Studies Promote Consensus Among Conflicting Stakeholders?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(11), pages 1978-1994, November.
    7. Valentine E. Nnadi & Christian N. Madu & Ikenna C. Ezeasor, 2021. "A Systematic Technique to Prioritization of Biodiversity Conservation Approaches in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.

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