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Projecting Rates of Spread for Invasive Species

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  • Michael G. Neubert
  • Ingrid M. Parker

Abstract

All else being equal, the faster an invading species spreads, the more dangerous its invasion. The projection of spread rate therefore ought to be a central part of the determination of invasion risk. Originally formulated in the 1970s to describe the spatial spread of advantageous alleles, integrodifference equation (IDE) models have since been co‐opted by population biologists to describe the spread of populations. More recently, they have been modified to include population structure and environmental variability. We review how IDE models are formulated, how they are parameterized, and how they can be analyzed to project spread rates and the sensitivity of those rates to changes in model parameters. For illustrative purposes, we apply these models to Cytisus scoparius, a large shrub in the legume family that is considered a noxious invasive species in eastern and western North America, Chile, Australia, and New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Neubert & Ingrid M. Parker, 2004. "Projecting Rates of Spread for Invasive Species," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 817-831, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:4:p:817-831
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00481.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Jim & Horváth, Lajos & Lewis, Mark, 2001. "On the estimation of spread rate for a biological population," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 225-234, February.
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    1. Alquran, Marwan & Al-Khaled, Kamel & Sardar, Tridip & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2015. "Revisited Fisher’s equation in a new outlook: A fractional derivative approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 81-93.
    2. Leite, Maria C.A. & Sauchuk, Rebecca & Agusto, Folashade B. & Gaoue, Orou G. & Chen-Charpentier, Benito, 2021. "Modeling the persistence of plant populations in fragmented ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    3. Miguel Fernández & Healy Hamilton, 2015. "Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Andrew M. Deines & Valerie C. Chen & Wayne G. Landis, 2005. "Modeling the Risks of Nonindigenous Species Introductions Using a Patch‐Dynamics Approach Incorporating Contaminant Effects as a Disturbance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1637-1651, December.
    5. Chung‐Min Liao & Yun‐Ru Ju & Chia‐Pin Chio & Wei‐Yu Chen, 2010. "Risk‐Based Probabilistic Approach to Assess the Impact of False Mussel Invasions on Farmed Hard Clams," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 310-323, February.

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