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A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes

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  • Adrian Kent

Abstract

Recent articles by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a “killer strangelet” catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely solely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. Nonetheless, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expectation value—a good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, pcatastrophe

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  • Adrian Kent, 2004. "A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 157-168, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:1:p:157-168
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00419.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sheldon L. Glashow & Richard Wilson, 1999. "Taking serious risks seriously," Nature, Nature, vol. 402(6762), pages 596-597, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan M. Ćirković, 2012. "Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1994-2004, November.
    2. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    3. Desheng Dash Wu & Jia Liu & David L. Olson, 2015. "Simulation Decision System on the Preparation of Emergency Resources Using System Dynamics," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 603-615, November.
    4. Jason G. Matheny, 2007. "Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1335-1344, October.
    5. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
    6. Bruce Tonn & Dorian Stiefel, 2013. "Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1772-1787, October.
    7. Milan M. Ćirković & Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom, 2010. "Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1495-1506, October.
    8. Edward A. Parson, 2007. "The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 147-213, March.

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