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Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High‐Level Radioactive Waste Repository

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  • Bernard L. Cohen

Abstract

A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for a high‐level radioactive waste repository is very important since it gives an estimate of its health impacts, allowing comparisons to be made with the health impacts of competing technologies. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a credible PRA for a specific repository site because of large uncertainties in future climate, hydrology, geological processes, etc. At best, such a PRA would not be understandable to the public. An alternative proposed here is to develop a PRA for an average U.S. site, taking all properties of the site to be the U.S. average. The results are equivalent to the average results for numerous randomly selected sites. Such a PRA is presented here; it is easy to understand, and it is not susceptible to substantial uncertainty. Applying the results to a specific repository site then requires only a simple, intuitively acceptable “leap of faith” in assuming that with large expenditures of effort and money, experts can select a site that would be at least as secure as a randomly selected site.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard L. Cohen, 2003. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High‐Level Radioactive Waste Repository," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5), pages 909-915, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:23:y:2003:i:5:p:909-915
    DOI: 10.1111/1539-6924.00368
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    Cited by:

    1. Möller, Niklas & Hansson, Sven Ove, 2008. "Principles of engineering safety: Risk and uncertainty reduction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 798-805.
    2. Bernard L. Cohen, 2004. "Response to the Comments by Ewing, Palenik, and Konikow," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1421-1422, December.
    3. Max Boholm, 2019. "Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1243-1261, June.
    4. R. C. Ewing & C. S. Palenik & L. F. Konikow, 2004. "Comment on “Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High‐Level Radioactive Waste Repository” by B. L. Cohen in Risk Analysis, Volume 23, 909–915," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1417-1419, December.

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