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An Integrated Risk Model of a Drinking‐Water – Borne Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak

Author

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  • Elizabeth A. Casman
  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Claire Palmgren
  • Mitchell J. Small
  • Felicia Wu

Abstract

A dynamic risk model is developed to track the occurrence and evolution of a drinking‐water–borne cryptosporidiosis outbreak. The model characterizes and integrates the various environmental, medical, institutional, and behavioral factors that determine outbreak development and outcome. These include contaminant delivery and detection, water treatment efficiency, the timing of interventions, and the choices that people make when confronted with a known or suspected risk. The model is used to evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies for improving risk management during an outbreak, and to identify priorities for improvements in the public health system. Modeling results indicate that the greatest opportunity for curtailing a large outbreak is realized by minimizing delays in identifying and correcting a drinking‐water problem. If these delays cannot be reduced, then the effectiveness of risk communication in preemptively reaching and persuading target populations to avoid exposure becomes important.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth A. Casman & Baruch Fischhoff & Claire Palmgren & Mitchell J. Small & Felicia Wu, 2000. "An Integrated Risk Model of a Drinking‐Water – Borne Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 495-512, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:20:y:2000:i:4:p:495-512
    DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.204047
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth A. Casman & Baruch Fischhoff, 2008. "Risk Communication Planning for the Aftermath of a Plague Bioattack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1342, October.
    2. Mehmet Fatih Sekercioglu & Jerry White & Dan Shrubsole, 2024. "The Development of a Sustainable Operation Model for Small Non-Community Drinking Water Systems in Ontario, Canada," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(6), pages 1-48, July.

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