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A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High‐Level Radioactive Waste

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  • B. John Garrick
  • Stan Kaplan

Abstract

In this paper the problem of high‐level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five‐stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high‐level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high‐level waste problem.

Suggested Citation

  • B. John Garrick & Stan Kaplan, 1999. "A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High‐Level Radioactive Waste," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 903-913, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:5:p:903-913
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00450.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1213-1232, July.
    2. Michael Greenberg & Karen Lowrie, 2011. "Celebrating Three Decades of Public Policy‐Oriented Interdisciplinary Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 7-11, January.

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